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Welcome to the Theory to Action podcast, where we examine the timeless treasures of wisdom from the great books in less time, to help you take action immediately and ultimately to create and lead a flourishing life.
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Now here's your host, david Kaiser.
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Hello, I am David and welcome back to another Mojo Minute and we're going to piggyback on our last Mojo Minute called Taxes have Consequences, because that episode was just a general overview of how the last decade of our economy went from Obama to Trump and now under Biden, and how, over the weekend, barack Obama never had a good economy.
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He's just out there spewing lie after lie and his economy was absolutely anemic.
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It was absolutely just pitiful.
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So for him to say it was otherwise is, like I said, just a blatant lie.
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He wasn't even close to having a good economy and for most of the reasons is because, frankly, democrats, almost all Democrats and, frankly, most Republicans have no understanding, zero understanding of how to grow the US economy and for sure they don't understand tax policy.
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And yes, that goes for you, bush 43, down there in Texas painting your cute little paintings, not saying a word while the country is hemorrhaging under this current president.
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And for Mitt Romney, our nominee in 2012, no idea, despite making a lot of money in business, has no idea how the economy works.
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And for Mike Pence, you had no idea, besides being our vice president for four years, no idea how the economy actually grew.
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Our vice president for four years, no idea how the economy actually grew, and over half of the US Senate and over three quarters of the GOP in the US House none of these people have a command of how to grow the economy.
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And how can I say that?
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Because, after watching politics for the last 35 years, I think it's only common sense to look back in history and ask several but very simple questions when did the economy, the US economy, grow really fast and what policies did we have in place to make it grow fast?
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If these brilliant men and women would just do that, instead of conducting all of these mental gymnastics of this, that this policy, that policy, this credit on this particular part of the economy, that credit on this, let's do all these mental gymnastics to try and create a tax policy that is overwhelmingly complicated, they would understand.
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It's quite simply what drives economic growth in this country is the number one reason is tax policy.
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It's 50% of the equation.
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And how do we know that?
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Because we have the data.
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We talked about it in our last episode.
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If you want to do your own research, I can heartily recommend many books to you on this topic, but just start with these three.
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Start with JFK and the Reagan Revolution.
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This will take you back to JFK, who asked the same very same questions.
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Very same questions when did the economy grow really fast and what policies did we have in place to make it grow fast?
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And yet he was asking these same questions back in the 1960s.
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Because why?
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Why was JFK asking them?
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Because he was taking over for a Republican president, dwight D Eisenhower, who didn't know how to grow the economy.
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But JFK answered those questions and executed a wonderful series of tax cuts that spurred the economy into the late 1960s, despite him being assassinated.
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And it wasn't until another GOP president, richard Nixon, who certainly didn't know anything of what in the Sam hell he was doing with the economy or, frankly, for any policy.
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I mean, we got price controls, we got just crazy regulations across everything.
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He, along with LBJ, just brutally slowed and stopped our economy in the late 60s and early 70s.
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I mean it was like putting a governor on a race car.
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So both of those presidents were absolutely horrible for the economy.
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So this first book you can do your own research is JFK and the Reagan Revolution, written by the esteemed economic mind of Larry Kudlow.
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The second book I'm going to recommend to you is the one we covered in our last podcast Taxes have Consequences by Art Laffer.
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Let's grab real quick the main conclusion and thesis of that frankly superb book.
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Go on to the book.
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In our examination of the income tax history of the United States, we have reached several overarching conclusions.
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They each fit within the meaning of our title Taxes have Consequences.
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Keynesian, monetarist and progressive leftist economies have glided over the clear impacts that tax rates have on every segment of the economy.
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We find that the evidence indicates in case after case, over the last century and more, that higher tax rates at a federal and state level, including property and corporate income taxes and tariffs, harm the economy.
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The example of the Great Depression itself is one of the clearest illustrations of this very point.
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We find that the evidence indicates again, in case after case, that lower tax rates have resulted in economic growth, employment and a broadening of opportunity.
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And we find that stimulus spending in no way enhances the standard of living.
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History shows that the Laffer curve works.
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The standard of living, or the optimal tax rate, is closer to sub 20% than up near 70%, and government needs to seriously second guess itself when it begins to find tax rate increase arguments convincing.
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Amen, bang the gavel.
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The case is closed.
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This book is an incredible 100-year examination of tax policy, which, again, is the largest part of our economic equation for any country, not just ours and it's written by Art Laffer, the creator of the Incredible Laffer Curve you just heard about and one of the trope of guys who helped convince Ronald Reagan to look strongly at supply-side economics.
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Who helped convince Ronald Reagan to look strongly at supply-side economics.
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And, as an aside, there's a great Prager University five-minute video that was done on the Laffer Curve and I just discovered it.
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Just found it last night, so I'm going to put that in the show notes.
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It was created all the way back in 2014.
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Just does a great job in five minutes of explaining the Laffer Curve and why it works and why so many people just completely turn the other way because they're economic illiterates.
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But Laffer, jack Kemp, robert Bartley those guys were all part of a quartet of people to advise Reagan strongly on the policies coming out of the 1970s.
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And we know what happened on the policies coming out of the 1970s.
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And we know what happened Once Reagan passed his supply side tax cuts in 1982, that economy roared back to life.
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I mean, it was like a phoenix rising from the ashes.
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That economy jumped big time Four, five, 8% growth year over year for the rest of the decade.
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And it only took Bush 41, who could be a knucklehead on some things not to continue those economic policies.
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That was essentially handed to him on a silver platter.
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He had all the personnel to put them in place.
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He fired most of those people.
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He wanted his own people and what did they do?
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They screwed it all up.
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All he had to do was just continue those economic policies and he most certainly would have won his second term.
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In fact, if most presidents could steer the economy with above roughly about a 2.7, 2.8% growth rate, the American people are going to reward you with a second term because income is growing, they're feeling good, they have money in their pocket.
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The cultural issues don't determine most US presidencies.
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Over 50% is economic and we saw that with Bill Clinton.
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The guy was facing all kind of headwinds in his second term, going for a second term in 1996.
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And the smartest thing he could do was to keep the economy going well and he did just that.
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He worked with a GOP Congress that came in 1994 under Gingrich.
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They took on welfare reform both of them, so they both could have talking points in their reelection and we saw that from our past episode.
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Regulation reforms affect 25% of the economy equation and spending affects the other 25%.
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So even though Clinton didn't do a tax cut per se, he affected over 50% of the tax or the economic equation.
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Tax policy equates for 50% and 25% for regulation on the other side and another 25% on spending.
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So Clinton was smart to work with the GOP Congress to essentially get the economy humming again with those other two pillars and not on the tax side.
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And what happens when the economy sputters in 1995 and early 96?
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, like I said, clinton gets welfare reform done and signed and the economy comes back to life.
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Frankly, just smart politics by that guy who had some smart people around him and said you got to keep the economy going no matter what's happening on the cultural side.
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So we have two books so far JFK and the Reagan Revolution and Taxes have Consequences which is essentially a 100-year romp through all of our tax history and it will pull the coverage back on why the economy is largely driven by Washington DC's mistakes and failures and sometimes how they get it right when they get government out of the way and allow the free market to explode.
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As such, they did in the 1920s, the 1980s and then for two years under Trump 17, 18, and 19.
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Roughly the end of 17, mostly 18 and 19.
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And why does that all work?
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Because the American people want to create, they want to innovate, they want to grow the economy it's the greatest economy ever in the history of the world to incur the greatest prosperity in the history the world's ever seen.
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So let me share with you why, even though I don't like Trump, I'm voting early for Trump, and if you're my friend, most likely you've heard all these reasons on why I don't like Trump.
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I don't need to rehash those.
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There are many, but there are two major, major reasons why I'm voting for him this time.
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And, in case you didn't know, I didn't vote for him in 2016.
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So, unlike many GOP voters who just went along to go along, I did not vote for him in 16.
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But I did vote for him in 2020, despite him not firing Anthony Fauci, which he should have done, and he should have been listening to Scott Atlas.
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But I am voting for Donald J Trump early this time, and let me share a story on why.
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Let's go to our book of the day and the scene is in early, I'm sorry.
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The scene is in late 2023 at Trump's Bedminster Golf Course in New Jersey, and there's two guys in the waiting room to see Trump Stephen Moore, well-known supply-sider, and Art Laffer, one of, again, reagan's economic aides and part of that Vaughn a Dream team of economic talent.
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Let's go to the book.
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So now we fast forward to the current campaign.
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When we met with Trump at his office in Bedminster, new Jersey, it was like we were starting right where we left off.
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They had met with as an aside, they had met with Trump back in 2015, when he was kicking off his 2016 campaign.
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Back to the book.
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We sat in the waiting room outside his office, overlooking the swimming pool in the first hole of the golf course and, in short, while Trump himself comes bounding out of his office with an enthusiastic smile.
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Usually, in this situation, an aide would usher visitors like us into the room to see the president, but it was quite flattering that he would come out and get us as an aside.
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One thing we have learned about Trump is that he has this special talent of making everyone he meets feel special and important.
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We've seen this firsthand so many times, whether it is a senator, a governor, a foreign dignitary, a cabinet secretary, a member of his country club, or even the waitress or a chauffeur or the grandmother at a Trump rally.
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He displays no arrogance in his personal relationships.
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He tries to learn something new from everyone he comes across and nearly everyone is beaming.
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After a meeting with Donald J Trump and here's our nugget of wisdom On this occasion Trump told us that he had asked us to come because he wanted, in effect, to put the band back together.
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Let's fast forward here.
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Just like eight years ago, we said we are in, and we are Art Laffer and Stephen Moore.
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Then Trump added make sure Larry's in too.
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That's Larry Kudlow.
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There's no doubt about that.
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Going back to the book, there's no doubt about that.
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Kudlow and Trump have a unique bond of trust and mutual admiration.
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So we signed on to be his economic advisors, his senior economic advisors.
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For the record, neither of us have ever been paid by Trump of the campaign in any of his three presidential runs.
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We have always served as volunteer consultants.
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One priority, we told the president, is that, early on in the discussion, what was needed to sharply compare and contrast the Trump and Biden presidencies on the economy See chapter two of this book for the full comparison.
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Trump has always had a fascination with Ronald Reagan, probably the most popular president in the past half century.
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He always peppers Laffer with question after question of the Gipper, as if to ask what would Reagan do?
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I put three stars out to the left because that tells me Trump is on the right track.
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Back to the book.
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We told Trump that the similarities between this election and that of the 80 election, when Reagan ran against the incumbent President, jimmy Carter, are very similar.
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Then as now, inflation was raging, america's foreign policy was a mess, illegal immigration was out of control and middle class incomes were falling.
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Gas prices were surging and it seemed to Americans that the economy and the country were headed off a cliff.
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We recited to Trump what Reagan had asked 100 million Americans watching the famous debate against Jimmy Carter in 1980.
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Are you better off than you were four years ago?
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Then as now, the answer is no.
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To buttress this point, we had come to the meeting armed with a chart book that we had put together with the help of our friend and Trump confidant, lee Rizzuto.
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The chart book compared Trump and Biden on 30 different metrics on the economy.
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We walked him through the flip chart through the flip chart.
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On virtually every one of these kitchen table metrics and measurements of middle-class well-being, trump far outperformed Biden.
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This included everything from take-home pay to inflation, to gas prices, to mortgage interest rates, to 401k returns, to minority poverty rates, to grocery bills, to credit card debts, to domestic energy production, to stock market performance after adjusting for inflation, and on and on.
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This sharp book has gone viral and has become a hallmark of the economic case for Trump, in 30 pictures and graphs.
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So that again is an excerpt from the Trump Economic Miracle written by Art Laffer and Stephen Moore.
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Very short book, some 160 pages roughly.
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And again, this meeting took place before the campaign began and here we are some three weeks away from Election Day and Trump's economic message is coming through day.
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And Trump's economic message is coming through, in fact, breaking through to voters of all types African-Americans, hispanics, low-income voters, high-income voters.
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This economic message is coming through.
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And in fact, let's move to chapter two of this book, because they outlined 21 distinct reasons why Trump beats Biden on the economy.
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21 of them, holy smokes, and I'm just going to go through half of them.
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So let's just go through half.
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I'm going to pick out the best 10, I think, and we'll talk about them.
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Going back to the book, this chapter documents how Trumponomics has outperformed Bidenomics on nearly every single economic financial metric of side-by-side performance.
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The data is compelling.
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But there's another telling indicator Neither Joe Biden nor Kamala Harris, nor any other Democrat running for office is still using the term Bidenomics.
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Why is that?
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Because most Americans associate Bidenomics with failure, with higher prices for nearly everything, economic stress, a lower standard of living and a stack as high as the Washington Monument of Biden's unpaid bills.
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So let's start with the statistic that is most problematic for all of us and most especially for Biden and Harris Number one real take-home pay.
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Up under Trump and down under Biden.
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Throughout most of Biden's presidency, inflation has outpaced wages and salaries for most families.
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So how can the White House claim that worker pay is rising?
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Well, the Biden PR flacks are playing a numbers deception.
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The White House is touting the rise of nominal hourly earnings, ie wages, before inflation, since Biden took office.
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That part of the story is true, but just as ins, but just as in the 1970s with double digit inflation, nominal wages rose but families got financially crushed because prices were rising so much faster.
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Today prices have risen even faster.
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So those high incomes buy less.
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Average weekly earnings, after inflation, are down 4% under Biden, while they were up 10% under Trump.
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The average American worker in America is $2,100 poorer than Biden when he came into office.
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This is an affordability crisis that is crushing families financially and, as the saying goes, this is game set and match for the Trump economy over the Biden-Harris economy.
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Number two median family income much higher under Trump.
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Another way to measure how families are doing is calculated every year by the US Census Bureau, the gold standard of measuring how the economy is affecting the middle class Under Trump, even accounting for COVID let me repeat that, even accounting for COVID under Trump, the median family income rose by $5,800.
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That's the highest gain in real dollars than under any other president in history.
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Under Biden, the data fell that through.
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The data shows that through 2022, the most recent data available incomes fell by more than $2,000.
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This is an astonishing $8,000 per household difference in Trump's favor.
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Now there's a chart in the book.
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I'd urge you to get the book so you can see these charts.
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The chart also shows that Trump's lift in middle-income family earnings is higher than that of the other three most recent president the other three most presidents' records combined Bush, obama, trump and Biden Trump has the most highest earnings.
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Now the curse of Biden inflation is number three.
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Americans hate inflation.
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It's the main reason why Jimmy Carter lost in the landslide to Ronald Reagan in 1980, with Reagan winning 42 states.
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This does not bode well for Kamala Harris, since she's been the vice president, while the inflation rate has been getting higher than any time since Jimmy Carter was in office.
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While Trump was president, the inflation rate averaged just a bit over 2%, and the month he left office it had fallen to 1.5%, one of the lowest rates in 40 years.
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Biden has blatantly lied by saying that the inflation was 9% when he came into office.
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Not even close office, not even close.
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Biden pushed through a five trillion dollar tax and spend and borrow and print money economic program.
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Within 18 months, the inflation rate had zoomed all the way up to 9.1.
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How can you screw that economy up that quickly?
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Was he trying to ruin the uS economy?
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I would say yes.
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Was he trying to emulate Jimmy Carter?
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I would say yes.
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Mercifully, the inflation rate had started to recede since the end of 2022, but the latest Bureau of Labor Statistics numbers indicate we are still seeing inflation rates close to 3 to 4 percent, which is nearly double the Federal Reserve's target of 2%.
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Number four, the fourth reason why Trump's economy beats Biden's economy and, for that matter, kamala Harris's economy Necessities of life are far more expensive under Biden-Harris.
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Of life are far more expensive under Biden-Harris.
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Most people think the inflation they face is a lot higher than the official 20% rise in prices.
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They're right.
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That is because the things that Americans have to pay for every week groceries, gas, rent or mortgage insurance, tuition payments, health care and drug costs have risen faster than the overall rate of inflation, and drug costs have risen faster than the overall rate of inflation.
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Even affordable fast food is now expensive.
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The CEO of McDonald's acknowledged that the price for a Big Mac meal is now more than $10, and the average cost of the menu item is 40% higher than that before the pandemic.
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The memorable $1 meal deals at McDonald's are now just that they're a memory.
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Now McDonald's advertises a $5 meal menu.
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In fact, just as an aside, taking a little break from quoting from the book, I was in Pittsburgh two weekends ago and no, just last weekend, I'm sorry Just last weekend.
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My vaunted Pittsburgh Steelers lost an elastic and play to the Dallas Cowboys on Sunday night football.
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So it was heartbreaking, it was soul crushing.
00:25:14.109 --> 00:25:31.799
But I got a quarter pounder with cheese value meal because I was not eating healthy and that quarter pounder with G's value meal was $4 difference from what I buy it at in Columbus Ohio.
00:25:31.799 --> 00:25:37.765
Granted Columbus Ohio different cost of living versus Western PA just south of Pittsburgh.
00:25:37.765 --> 00:25:53.815
But $4 difference is dramatic, speaks, anecdotally, just speaks to the amount of inflation that is happening across the country and how people are getting hammered by Biden's inflation.
00:25:53.815 --> 00:26:01.778
And all that money, all that money that was spent with the so-called Inflation Reduction Act none of that we have seen.
00:26:01.778 --> 00:26:05.807
Nothing has gotten better Infrastructure not better.
00:26:05.807 --> 00:26:16.419
All the money they spent upwards of $5 trillion in that first year right after Biden took office.
00:26:16.419 --> 00:26:19.182
All of that has just gone away.
00:26:19.182 --> 00:26:26.878
So our bang for our buck on that money because inflation has been dramatically reduced.
00:26:26.878 --> 00:26:28.952
If not, we are so underwater.
00:26:28.952 --> 00:26:32.914
So that's just an aside that I wanted to share with you.
00:26:33.325 --> 00:26:43.059
Let's go back to the book for more reasons why Trump's economy beats Biden, and especially Kamala Harris's economy, overwhelmingly.
00:26:43.059 --> 00:26:53.509
Our fifth reason why the Trump economy beats the Biden-Harris economy gas prices surged under Biden.
00:26:53.509 --> 00:27:04.193
Trump came in office promising a drill, baby drill strategy For the first time in more than 50 years, the US was producing more oil and gas than it was consuming.
00:27:04.193 --> 00:27:09.580
Prices fell and America became a oil and gas exporter.
00:27:09.580 --> 00:27:17.848
Trump struck a symbolic blow as well by withdrawing the US from the anti-American Paris Climate Treaty.
00:27:18.630 --> 00:27:23.685
Biden came into office declaring war on American energy, and he's winning.
00:27:23.685 --> 00:27:28.308
He promised to kill off the American oil, gas and coal industry.
00:27:28.308 --> 00:27:39.337
His first act in office was to kill the vital Keystone XL pipeline so that American oil and gas could be transported to American communities.
00:27:39.337 --> 00:27:44.636
This was the same president who said we needed to spend $100 trillion on infrastructure.
00:27:44.636 --> 00:27:46.147
That's what I was referencing.
00:27:46.147 --> 00:27:50.798
The gas price was $2.50 a gallon when Trump left office.
00:27:50.798 --> 00:27:54.115
Now in most markets it's $3.50 to $4.
00:27:54.115 --> 00:27:57.634
And California gas has been above $5 a gallon the whole time.
00:27:57.634 --> 00:28:06.232
Overall, energy prices rose 40% in the first 40 months of the Biden presidency.
00:28:06.232 --> 00:28:10.518
Just hemorrhaging on gas prices.
00:28:10.518 --> 00:28:12.819
We start drilling for oil and gas.
00:28:12.819 --> 00:28:14.241
Sorry, this is an aside.
00:28:14.241 --> 00:28:17.628
We start drilling for oil and gas.
00:28:17.628 --> 00:28:20.375
We start producing our own oil and gas again.
00:28:20.375 --> 00:28:29.868
That price is going to come dramatically down and that's going to help out the whole economy come dramatically down and that's going to help out the whole economy.
00:28:29.868 --> 00:28:36.748
Prices will start to drop, because the amount of gas to deliver those products all over the country is going to drop and prices will drop after that.
00:28:38.892 --> 00:28:46.712
Our sixth reason why the Trump economy beats the Biden-Harris economy national debt is headed towards $50 trillion.
00:28:46.712 --> 00:28:51.431
The national debt has risen rapidly under Republicans and Democrats.
00:28:51.431 --> 00:28:56.188
We hold both parties responsible for the sea of red ink in Washington.
00:28:56.188 --> 00:29:05.974
Trump was a big borrower, but no president perhaps ever has been as financially reckless as Joe Biden.
00:29:05.974 --> 00:29:10.604
Listen to this.
00:29:10.604 --> 00:29:17.653
The government debt burden now stands at $34 trillion and is roughly up $6 trillion already since Biden came into office.
00:29:17.653 --> 00:29:26.029
This is roughly more money, adjusted for inflation, than we borrowed to fight and win World War II.
00:29:27.652 --> 00:29:52.667
If we take out the two COVID years of 2020 and 2021, when federal spending skyrocketed due to the catastrophe of shutting down businesses and schools, the average deficit was $750 billion a year under under Trump and 1.5 trillion under Biden.
00:29:52.667 --> 00:29:58.755
Now there's no crisis or emergency under Biden, except for the crisis he created himself.
00:29:58.755 --> 00:30:02.018
So why are we borrowing such huge sums?
00:30:02.018 --> 00:30:04.060
Even though the COVID crisis ended three years ago?
00:30:04.060 --> 00:30:14.287
That debt burden is expected to rise to $50 trillion in 10 years, even though the White House and Congress are pretending that they've cut the debt.
00:30:14.287 --> 00:30:20.358
Over just the last 12 months, federal borrowing has exceeded $2 trillion.