LM#43--Will The GOP Commit Political Suicide?

Will the GOP in the next 24 hours commit political suicide? All eyes turn to Iowa tomorrow, january 15th, for its caucuses. Let's talk about it on this Liberty Minute.

Welcome to the Theory to Action podcast, where we examine the timeless treasures of wisdom from the great books in less time, to help you take action immediately and ultimately to create and lead a flourishing life. Now here's your host, David Kaiser.

Hello, I am David and welcome back to another Liberty Minute. It's going to be somewhat long Liberty Minute, and so I ask you to hang in there with me. This has been a passion of mine over the last year or so, so I want to give you my best analysis, but the political season is upon us and finally, finally, we have votes that will actually happen, no longer polls, we have actual votes on the record, and so, to give you my best analysis on this Liberty Minute, with the Iowa caucuses just 24 hours away, we're going to answer three pivotal questions. Number one can Donald Trump win in November 2024? Number two does Florida Governor Ron DeSantis have a better record at leading on the major issues, and is there one particular issue where former President Trump failed miserably and where Florida Governor Ron DeSantis should be given the nod because of his leadership on that pivotal issue? So three questions we will dive into deeply and try to answer Now. Before we do that, just a little shout out to our members here at Tombow Joe Academy Members, you will have in the next hour or so, once it's done uploading, you will have a special edition, a part two of this Liberty Minute where we actually dive into comparing Florida Governor Ron DeSantis to California Governor Ronald Reagan, which is a fascinating topic. Cover him on all the five major issues, both Governor Reagan and Governor DeSantis, then you will be surprised, very surprised, how Florida Governor Ron DeSantis stacks up to the conservative darling Ronald Reagan. But for now we'll turn to our first question can Donald Trump win in November 2024? And let's first talk about this polling that we have been subjected to for the last six months. So if we turn to the real clear politics average, we see that Donald Trump is plus 33%. He is 52.5. Haley is this is the RCP average for the week of 1-5 to 1-13, the final real clear politics average going into tomorrow's vote, excuse me. So Trump has an average of 52.5. Haley at 18.7. Desantis at 15.5. Rama Swami at 6.5. Christie at 3.5. And Hutchison at 0.8. So Trump has a spread on the average of 33.8 points. He's been that way ever since being indicted, way back in March of 2023. And that lead has extended all the way through the summer, into the fall and now into January. So I say all that to give us context about these major polls. Now we all know that polls can vary in efficacy. We've all seen the polls that said, trump couldn't win in 2016 and he pulled off an upset. So polls are what they are. They're a snapshot. Some are good, some are bad, but I want to bring to your attention an interesting guy who I've come across in the last four months here, and I've started to follow him on Twitter or X or whatever we're calling it. Gentleman's name is Robert Salvador, and I'm just going to read a tweet of his that he posted, because it sums up everything he's been doing for the last six months. Tweet on January 2nd 2024. So it says put your money where your mouth is. Poll gate is real. I posted many polls showing how inaccurate, misrepresented or insufficient and, in effect, of the data is in almost every mainstream, with almost every mainstream pollster. Haters said if you are so sure, put your money where your mouth is and create a poll. So I am. Today, I announce we're releasing the first ever AI, creativepole artificial intelligence. The poll will use AI automation and big data to generalize preferences and make a guess on a person's voting habits, based off an algorithm and other technical tools. Why is this better? And here's where it got compelling Simple. There's a reason. Amazon Prime knows your buying habits better than anyone, even yourself. Log in and watch it. Tell you everything you like in life. Big data and things like AI and ML I don't know what that is can crunch data and make better assumptions than biased pay to play non-mathematically sound polls. It's like moneyball in sports. There's a reason every major sports coach uses data to plan their strategy in 2023. On January 7th, we will release our first ever poll. It will be 100% data driven and transparent the first ever AI driven poll. On January 14th, we will release another AI driven, but a hybrid that cross-references with standard polling methods. A few important notes this is not a counter poll for DeSantis. While it seems DeSantis is certainly undersampled by mainstream polls, we will release our poll, whether it shows him at 55%, 35% or 15%. The goal is transparency and accuracy. This is done by a team of technologists DeSantis's supporters, but not the campaign or the pack or any related groups to them and some of the biggest brass and influencers in the Republican party are supporting and partnering on this. More info to come. Pollsters, you are on notice. Better tech is going to disrupt you, excuse me, so I just found that super compelling. So then I waited and we got the January 7th poll that Robert Salvador promised us. This is the first AI data and tech driven poll. It was conducted one on January 1st through January 7th. It has Trump at 40%, desantis at 34%, haley at 16, ramaswamy at 10, christie less than three. Sentiment and activity trend Trump is falling, desantis is rising, haley is falling, ramaswamy is rising, christie is neutral. The tradition sample is the number is 1,000 with a margin of error of 5%. Register voters Republican 50%, independence 50%. And I believe they were using Republican 50%, independent 50% because the digital sample calculation in the thread below Okay, I believe they did not include. Democrats are able to vote in the Iowa caucuses. They can switch their vote that night and vote so they can throw off a sampling. But I believe they were anticipating the weather and they figured that very little Democrats will come out, no matter who they were gonna vote for or who they were gonna try and manipulate. So that's a long way around the mountain to say I'm not sure that the mainstream media is gonna come out of this not unscathed by their polling that has Trump up plus 32 or 33, whatever it was the spread. If this AI first driven poll comes out, trump 40%, desantis 34% that's gonna be a big deal. That's gonna be such a big deal because Trump will have not crested 50, desantis will have been plus I think the mainstream media has him at 15%. That will have him plus 20% and that will show a closing, a vast closing. So, as they say in horse races, hold your tickets. Not sure how this was gonna end. Maybe this guy's completely wet, not sure. First, ai driven poll. I thought it was compelling, and I have heard this guy give some interviews. He made a compelling case and much of his case was that, similar to the way the death rates for COVID were being manipulated by all the hospital systems to get more money and to scare policy makers into more draconian excuse me, more draconian shutdowns, same thing is happening with a push polling and to give you another example of how this is happening. I just checked Robert Salvador's Twitter feed and, wouldn't you know, he actually predicted something that is coming true as we speak. Let me grab my phone. Oh, as an aside, this is breaking news, but just goes to show you what the former president's character is like. I did not vote for him in 2016, I figured he did not have a record to run on, and I voted for the former president in 2020 because he did have a record to run on. I'm hoping to not vote for him again because I believe it's political suicide, which is the reason why we're putting out this podcast. But Donald Trump, just now to a group of people, uh, in Indonola, iowa. He was holding a rally in Indonola, iowa. He comes out on a hun unhinged tirade against the very popular conservative governor, kim Reynolds, because she endorsed Ron DeSantis, comes out and says I don't ever want to see you on my campaign again. Trump claims he told Reynolds earlier this year that simply appearing with other presidential candidates was not welcomed. So Donald Trump, going a wall on the popular governor from Iowa, okay, getting back to the. Getting back to the Robert Salvador tweet that he predicted. Just to set some context about this is the General election. Matchups have always had the mainstream media. All their polling had always been favorable to Trump. Since March, many people started to explain this as a psychological operation that they were pushing Trump Almost the same way they did with January 6th, to make it almost an entrapment, which Many on the right believe that it was, with over 200 federal officials Within the crowd, manipulating that crowd, opening up doors into the Capitol. So what was the Democrats claim was an insurrection, really was a mob that was pushed and prodded by federal officials. So hopefully we'll get the truth to come out on that. But getting back to this polling, the mainstream media Push polling on the general election matchup between Trump and Biden always has had Trump beating Biden anywhere from 2 to 7 percent. Right now, the real clear politics average, trump is up by 1.1 percent on the real clear politics average. This is the general act, a general election matchup between Trump and Biden. So what Robert Salvador has been predicting is, once Iowa was over, that the mainstream media would flip on Trump and then they would start to say that Biden would beat Trump drastically. And wouldn't you know? Just six hours ago, national poll, general election among voters 18 to 29. Biden 62%, trump 35% plus 27 Increase. Now the total overall poll has. Wait for it. Wait for it. Okay, the general election poll has Trump up plus two, which is still in line with what they have been doing. Oh, here's another interesting anecdote Trump is still up plus 11 among independence. So it looks like, if we can actually believe these polls and they're not psychological operations that Trump is still getting pushed some, especially with independence. But the flipping is starting to happen among the young folks when Wait for it? Biden is up 27 percent among voters 18 to 29. Trump is still up plus two. But and even in that general election poll they had broken down Michigan as one of the targets and by naturally 45%, trump 41%. So I say all that that can Trump win in a general election? I say heavens know. Trump's highest ceiling he ever got was 46%. You got that in 2016 and and with that 46% he barely carried five to six states, and 2020 his percentage was 46.8%. So the best case scenario is Roughly 46 to 47%. Then, if you go state by state, the math gets even harder and worse for Trump. Plus, you throw in four legal lawsuits, not to mention all the shenanigans that happened in the 2020 election, in which Trump can't win that argument. If it comes to that, if he has to get into a legal battle over the 2024 election being stolen, nobody's gonna believe him. Even if he's right, everyone, including half of his own base, wouldn't get behind him to fight those legal battles in 2020, or to even have another January 6th moment where we could challenge the election, and Would that be another federal entrapment scheme? Probably. So Trump's baggage is very heavy, very heavy. His age doesn't help him and the fact that he would be a lame duck president right out of the gate doesn't help him. Now, if the GOP faithful and I would do choose Trump again, I Believe it would be Geo plea, geo P political suicide. It's the worst decision they can make. Now. Most of Trump's voters are saying DeSantis should wait His day. He shouldn't have run in 2024. And honestly, to counter that I say there might not be a country to save by 2028. Joe Biden and the radical Democrats are hell bent on changing the country forever and I believe that Joe Biden is so seen now that he wants to do everything that Barack Obama couldn't do. They both want to radically change America forever. If you want to dig into more of why, I believe that you can read a great book by David Horowitz not Daniel Horowitz, different guy, david Horowitz by the name of the final battle, all about how, once Democrats, if they can steal the 2024 election, once they get past that and they get the presidency and the House and the Senate, they can absolutely codify everything so that we will become a one party state, much like California. Yes, there's Republicans and conservatives in California. Yes, they vote. Maybe they vote counts, maybe it doesn't. Nobody can validate that. And it's 60 to 40. They never stand a chance to ever win an election ever again. Radical Democrats want that to be the United States of America nationwide. So with that, our next question does Florida Governor Ron DeSantis have a better record of leading on the major issues of our time? Yes, trump did some good things. Not going to disparage the former president, but on the issues it's a mixed bag. I think he was an average GOP president, but he was not the next thing to Ronald Reagan. The economy was somewhat good. Everyone says the economy was going gangbusters. Here's the data on the economy. Here's GOP percentages, year by year. We'll start with 2016, obama's last year, to give you some context. Gdp, gross domestic product percentage 1.7 growth rate Not very good. If you're not above 2%, it's terrible. 2017, trump's first year edged up to 2.4%. Okay, it's off to a good start, better than Obama, thankfully, but not the 3% that Trump promised, certainly not the 4% that Reagan got by his third year. But this was only Trump's first year, so, and actually Obama never reached 3% for his full eight years. That's how bad Obama's economy was. So anything above Obama's economy on the average we thought was doing good and it was by 2018, trump hits 2.9%. So now the economy is starting to rev up. Tax cuts were enacted in 2018. They started to kick in, started to pay off, but then, 2019, it drops down to 2.3%. And many people have speculated that Trump's tariffs on China counteracted the great tax cuts that he led on and that significantly slowed growth. We actually haven't had that much digging in to why the economy slowed down in 2019. Why? Because in January, february and March of 2020, the whole bottom came out. So today, that speaks of a much different economy. Again, trump did some good things on the economy. He was drilling for oil and there was no rejection of fossil fuels. That's a good thing. So what about immigration? Trump said he was going to build the wall, make Mexico pay for it. Did he build the wall? Kind of, it's half built right now, but no, mexico didn't pay for it. Now Trump says there's no way to make Mexico pay for it, but others say he didn't have the courage to tax remittances of many illegals that wire money back to their families in Mexico and other foreign countries. Desantis would say he would do this. Trump could have done it, but he didn't. Trump signed the Remain in Mexico Executive Order, which is good, but then he wouldn't lead on this issue, even though he campaigned on it, and instead he went along with, of all people, paul Ryan and the Wall Street Journal in the Chamber of Commerce and said you need an amnesty bill. He could have lit lit led on the immigration issue. In fact, he campaigned on it. He could have signed the Executive Order ending birthright citizenship, but he didn't do that either. Now the Freedom Caucus, which Ron DeSantis helped to found when he was in Congress, had staked out a position on immigration that said we need far less amnesty and far more security. This would have been the right thing to do, but the former president didn't do it, nope. So what about spending? Trump campaigned against wasteful spending, saying he could make a deal, he'd be the greatest dealmaker ever. And what did he actually do? He signed not one, not two, but 12 continuing resolutions. He could have fought for spending for his wall that Mexico was supposed to pay for. He could have fought for spending for that. He didn't even do that. He let Congress get away with it. What about healthcare and Obamacare? Trump could have fought against John McCain and Paul Ryan, who were caving in to the Democrats at the time. He could have led as president with the bully pulpit and helped to repeal Obamacare. He didn't do that, and catastrophically. What about COVID-19? He could have led in this area. He had the same research and we have documented it well from this microphone. He had Scott Atlas in the Oval Office and Scott was telling him that Berks and Fauci were not telling him the truth. That was in the summer of 2020. Trump should have fired Fauci by August of 2020. He didn't. He allowed Fauci to continue to shut down the greatest economy in the world. So Trump on the issues is a mixed bag. We all know now that Trump doesn't have principles. He will go and say and do anything to anyone, anywhere. It's pure political opportunism. And has it turned out well for the GOP? Well, trump's greatest win is on the issue of abortion, outside of his foreign policy, which is a close second. But on the issue of abortion, trump has now abandoned that and said we need to compromise on that issue. Huh what? He appointed three Supreme Court justices to overturn Roe v Wade. He should have taken credit for that. He has taken credit for that. Now he's reversed himself and has gone completely against it. The elections of 2018 and 2020 were not great for the GOP and the expected red wave. Remember the tsunami that was supposed to come in 2022? That didn't turn out to be anything of a tsunami, other than Florida, where Florida Governor Ron DeSantis won by 19%, the largest victory ever in the governor's race in that state. He actually turned that state pure red. That used to be a 50-50 swing state. Remember the election of 2000 with hanging chats. Florida is the third most diverse state in the country, so that's a good bellwether for Florida Governor Ron DeSantis. Now, another good bellwether on the health of the GOP brand and, frankly, any political brand is this it is the control of state legislatures countrywide and how state legislative seats, how they're divvied up based on federal elections. So going to ballot PDF for this In 61 of the 99 state legislative chambers, the Democratic Party held more seats following the 2020 general election than it did after the general election in 2016. During President Donald Trump's term, republicans lost a net 187 state legislative seats, decreasing the party's control of seats by 3 percentage points. Now, further down we read to get some context on this Trump's presidency was the third in the 21st century, following George W Bush and Barack Obama, both of whom served for eight years. A comparison of all three presidents in their first four years in office shows that Trump lost 187 seats, and that was far lower than Obama, who lost 598 Democratic seats between 2009 and 2013. A decrease of 8 percentage points Now. During Bush 43's first four years, from 2001 to 2005, republicans gained a net 119 seats, increasing the party's control by 1 percentage point. Both Reagan and Bush 41 gained state legislative seats during their first four years. So, okay, I believe we have the answer to that question. Now, moving on to our last question, is there one particular issue where former President Trump failed miserably and where Florida Governor Ron DeSantis should be given the nod because of his great leadership and we all know that. Absolutely Most GOP voters know that Florida Governor Ron DeSantis led on the issue of COVID-19. You can read several books on this. We've covered one here. I actually covered two here in the Academy Review, plague upon our nation by Scott Atlas is by far the best book. That covers the details that President Trump and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis at the same time were getting the same health care briefings and after April 2020, the governor began changing his direction drastically and Trump did not. Trump stayed with doctors Fauci and Birx and, frankly, he even gave Fauci an award on his last day in office. The man should have never been given a warm cup of coffee. Fauci is a disgusting man, a complete and total liar. He should be brought to trial for all the lying he did over the last three years while at NIH. May God have mercy on his soul. But close to 6 million people died and over 18 million people in the world died with excess deaths, for COVID and Fauci knew, and he knew why and how it was happening. We will cover that later in a Liberty Minute, because there's a great book that just came out documenting it all. But on this question, the Florida Governor showed far better leadership on COVID-19 than did the former president. So, in closing out this rather long Liberty Minute, thank you for staying with us. Our three questions at the top of the show were can Donald Trump win in November 2024? We believe absolutely not. Does Florida Governor Ron DeSantis have a better record of leading on the major issues of our time? Certainly and most overwhelmingly, on every major issue he does. And our final question is there one issue in particular where former President Trump failed miserably and where Florida Governor DeSantis should be given a nod because of his leadership. Absolutely. The COVID-19 pandemic was the worst pandemic and over 100 years, and Florida Governor DeSantis showed the best leadership, over and above former President Trump. Iowans should choose well tomorrow night. They do not have to commit political suicide. Now, as of this recording, we went back, checked Robert Salvador's Twitter feed, or X, whatever we're calling that these days. He has not released his January 14th poll. So that leaves us with. If I were to make a prediction and I'm terrible at predictions, my members know that from my 2022 prediction, but if I was going to go on the record and say I will say Iowans will choose well, I will predict DeSantis will win 41 to Trump's 39%, ramaswamy will get 12 and Nikki Haley will get a dismal eight. Speculation right now that Trump and Haley have a backroom deal for her to become his vice president nominee. But, over and above all that, I believe the tagline coming out of Iowa will be short and the major media will silence the victory of Ron DeSantis. He will not get the bump coming out of Iowa that most get. This victory will be shrugged off, as weather played an overly important role for DeSantis and his supporters came out and that's how he gained so much in the last days, and the major media will shrug their shoulders. Chalk it up to polling in a caucus state is very hard and the weather was absolutely miserable. That's why DeSantis won. But we're all going to move on to New Hampshire now, where DeSantis doesn't have a ground game and where he's likely to get beat, so it all doesn't matter. Maybe I'm wrong, but I think I may be right. We'll see. Iowans, you can vote for a better man. You should choose the most proven leader and a guy whom can win in November going away. That's Florida Governor Ron DeSantis. Iowans should choose. Well, they should choose Liberty over tyranny and they should choose Florida Governor Ron DeSantis.

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